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Quantum computing is rapidly advancing, and its potential impact on encryption security is becoming a major concern. Classical encryption methods, such as RSA and Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC), rely on mathematical problems that are difficult for traditional computers to solve. However, quantum algorithms, particularly Shor’s algorithm, threaten to break these systems. Shor's algorithm can efficiently factor large integers, which is the foundation of RSA, and solve the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem (ECDLP), which underpins ECC. Project Eleven has even launched the Q-Day Prize, offering 1 Bitcoin to anyone who can crack a Bitcoin private key using Shor’s algorithm on a quantum computer, underscoring the urgency of addressing this threat.
The vulnerability of current cryptographic methods has spurred research into post-quantum cryptography (PQC). PQC focuses on developing encryption algorithms that are resistant to attacks from both classical and quantum computers. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has already published its first set of post-quantum standards in August 2024, including algorithms like ML-KEM (Kyber) for key encapsulation and ML-DSA (Dilithium) for digital signatures. These standards are intended to be integrated into software and systems over the coming years, with the NSA’s Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite (CNSA 2.0) mandating their use in certain applications by 2030.
While commercially viable quantum computers capable of breaking current encryption are still under development, the pace of progress is accelerating. IBM and Google are among the companies racing to build larger and more powerful quantum processors. Experts estimate that a quantum computer with around 20 million physical qubits (approximately 6,000 logical qubits) could factor a 2048-bit RSA modulus in a matter of hours. This has led to a "harvest-now, decrypt-later" strategy, where adversaries collect encrypted data with the intention of decrypting it once quantum computers become powerful enough. The transition to quantum-resistant cryptography is now considered an engineering problem, requiring careful planning and implementation across various systems and infrastructures.
References :
- IACR News: The Role of Quantum Computing in Enhancing Encryption Security: A Review
- thequantuminsider.com: Quantum Contest Offers 1 Bitcoin for Cracking Encryption With Shor’s Algorithm
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