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NishMath - #statistics
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@phys.org
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phys.org
A new mathematical model developed by the University of Rovira i Virgili's SeesLab research group, along with researchers from Northeastern University and the University of Pennsylvania, has made it possible to predict human mobility between cities with high precision. The model offers a simpler and more efficient way than current systems and is a valuable tool for understanding how people move in different contexts, which is crucial for transport planning, migration studies, and epidemiology. The research was published in the journal *Nature Communications*.
The model builds on traditional "gravitational models," which estimate mobility based on population size and distance between cities. While these models are simple, they lack accuracy. Modern approaches leverage artificial intelligence and machine learning to incorporate many variables besides origin and destination, such as the density of restaurants and schools, and the socio-demographic characteristics of the population. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of predicting mobility for understanding the spread and evolution of viruses. Recommended read:
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Will@math.stackexchange.com
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math.stackexchange.com
, medium.com
A recent analysis has delved into the probabilistic interpretation of linear regression coefficients, highlighting the differences in reasoning when using expected values versus covariances. It has been shown that when calculating regression coefficients, employing expected values leads to correct formulations that correspond to the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. Specifically, the formula a=E[XY]/E[X^2] is derived using the expected value of the product of the independent and dependent variables. This approach aligns with the traditional understanding of linear regression where a model is expressed as Y=aX+ε, with ε being a centered error term independent of X.
However, using covariances for the probabilistic interpretation fails, especially in models without an intercept term. While covariance is often used to calculate the correlation between variables, the derived formula a=cov(X,Y)/var(X) does not align with the correct regression coefficient when there isn't an intercept. This divergence arises because the assumption of an intercept is implicit when using covariance, and its absence invalidates the formula using covariance. The study clarifies how formulas are derived in both scenarios and why the probabilistic reasoning fails when using covariances in situations where there is no intercept included in the model. The use of empirical means versus population means was also discussed to explore the nuances further. Recommended read:
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admin@ICNAAM 2025
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ICNAAM 2025
, medium.com
The International Conference of Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics (ICNAAM) 2025 will feature a symposium on Statistical Modeling and Data Analysis. The event, organized by Luis M. Grilo from the University of Évora and the Research Centre for Mathematics and Applications in Portugal, aims to gather researchers from various fields with expertise in statistical models and data analysis. Academics, professionals, and students interested in these areas are encouraged to submit original, unpublished results for peer review.
Applications with real-world data are particularly welcome, spanning disciplines such as Health Sciences, Natural and Life Sciences, Social and Human Sciences, Economics, Engineering, Education, Sports, and Tourism. The conference aims to foster collaboration and knowledge sharing within the international Numerical and Applied Mathematics community. It is organized with the cooperation of the European Society of Computational Methods in Sciences and Engineering (ESCMCE). Recommended read:
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Megan Murphy@STATTRAK
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STATTRAK
The Causality in Statistics Education Award, established by Judea Pearl, is seeking nominations. This award acknowledges the growing importance of incorporating causal inference into undergraduate and lower-division graduate statistics courses. The award provides a $5,000 cash prize annually, and nominations are due by April 5th. Further details regarding selection criteria and nomination requirements can be found on the American Statistical Association's STATtr@k website.
In other news, the Carnival of Maths 237, which rounds up various mathematics blog posts, is now available online. A mathematics conference organized by DEA SCUOLA is scheduled for secondary school mathematics teachers which aims to enhance mathematics teaching through innovative strategies and the integration of AI. Musically, Day 30 of a practice series features bass drum exercises from Mark Guiliana's book, highlighting complex coordination challenges in alternating snare and bass drum strokes. Recommended read:
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@medium.com
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medium.com
, medium.com
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Statistical distributions and their applications are crucial in understanding data and making informed decisions. One common application is the Chi-squared test used to evaluate if a Linear Congruential Generator (LCG) produces random numbers that follow a uniform distribution. A key point of discussion revolves around the interpretation of the p-value in this test; with a small p-value, typically less than 0.05 indicating a low probability of the data conforming to the expected distribution, leading to the rejection of the hypothesis. This contrasts with an earlier misunderstanding where some had thought a small p value means the data follows the desired distribution more closely.
Another area is binomial distribution, which is used when dealing with experiments that have two possible outcomes. This distribution can be applied to scenarios like predicting sales success based on the probability of closing a deal with each sales call. In these cases, tools like Microsoft Excel can be used to calculate the likelihood of achieving different numbers of successful sales within a fixed number of calls. The binomial and Poisson distributions are also very important in probability and statistics, with the binomial distribution counting the number of successes in a fixed number of independent trials, while the Poisson distribution models the probability of a number of events occurring within a fixed time or space. These distributions are fundamental to probability theory and are frequently used in various practical situations and are also easy to model using Python for ease of understanding. Recommended read:
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@medium.com
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Recent publications have highlighted the importance of statistical and probability concepts, with an increase in educational material for data professionals. This surge in resources suggests a growing recognition that understanding these topics is crucial for advancing AI and machine learning capabilities within the community. Articles range from introductory guides to more advanced discussions, including the power of continuous random variables and the intuition behind Jensen's Inequality. These publications serve as a valuable resource for those looking to enhance their analytical skillsets.
The available content covers a range of subjects including binomial and Poisson distributions, and the distinction between discrete and continuous variables. Practical applications are demonstrated using tools like Excel to predict sales success and Python to implement uniform and normal distributions. Various articles also address common statistical pitfalls and strategies to avoid them including skewness and misinterpreting correlation. This shows a comprehensive effort to ensure a deeper understanding of data-driven decision making within the industry. Recommended read:
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@medium.com
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medium.com
, medium.com
Recent explorations in probability, statistics, and data analysis have highlighted the significance of the z-score as a tool for understanding data distribution. The z-score, a standard way of comparing data points across different distributions, helps identify outliers and make data-driven decisions. This statistical method is crucial for understanding how unusual or typical a particular data point is in relation to the average and is a fundamental element in making sound inferences from data. Researchers are emphasizing the importance of mastering these fundamentals for anyone involved in data science or analytical fields.
The study of distributions plays a key role in both probability and generalized function theories. Understanding how these distributions are related enhances our insights into patterns and randomness in the natural world. The normal distribution, often represented by a bell curve, illustrates how many phenomena tend to cluster around an average, with rarer events falling at the extremes. Moreover, the essential mathmatics behind these theories, including descriptive statistics, basic probability, inferential statistics, and regression analysis, form the heart and soul of data science, allowing data scientists to analyze and make sense of raw data. Recommended read:
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@vatsalkumar.medium.com
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medium.com
Recent articles have focused on the practical applications of random variables in both statistics and machine learning. One key area of interest is the use of continuous random variables, which unlike discrete variables can take on any value within a specified interval. These variables are essential when measuring things like time, height, or weight, where values exist on a continuous spectrum, rather than being limited to distinct, countable values. The concept of the probability density function (PDF) helps us to understand the relative likelihood of a variable taking on a particular value within its range.
Another significant tool being explored is the binomial distribution, which can be applied using programs like Microsoft Excel to predict sales success. This distribution is suited to situations where each trial has only two outcomes – success or failure, like a sales call resulting in a deal or not. Using Excel, one can calculate the probability of various sales outcomes based on factors like the number of calls made and the historical success rate, aiding in setting achievable sales goals and comparing performance over time. Also, the differentiation between binomial and poisson distribution is critical for correct data modelling, with binomial experiments requiring fixed number of trials and two outcomes, unlike poisson. Finally, in the world of random variables, a sequence of them conditionally converging to a constant value has been discussed, highlighting that if the sequence converges, knowing it passes through some point doesn't change the final outcome. Recommended read:
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@tracyrenee61.medium.com
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Recent discussions have highlighted the importance of several key concepts in probability and statistics, crucial for data science and research. Descriptive measures of association, statistical tools used to quantify the strength and direction of relationships between variables are essential for understanding how changes in one variable impact others. Common measures include Pearson’s correlation coefficient and Chi-squared tests, allowing for the identification of associations between different datasets. This understanding helps in making informed decisions by analyzing the connection between different factors.
Additionally, hypothesis testing, a critical process used to make data-driven decisions, was explored. It determines if observations from data occur by chance or if there is a significant reason. Hypothesis testing involves setting a null hypothesis and an alternative hypothesis then the use of the P-value to measure the evidence for rejecting the null hypothesis. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulations were presented as a valuable tool for estimating probabilities in scenarios where analytical solutions are complex, such as determining the probability of medians in random number sets. These methods are indispensable for anyone who works with data and needs to make inferences and predictions. Recommended read:
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@medium.com
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medium.com
, ujangriswanto08.medium.com
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Statistical analysis is a key component in understanding data, with visualizations like boxplots commonly used. However, boxplots can be misleading if not interpreted carefully, as they can oversimplify data distributions and hide critical details. Additional visual tools such as stripplots and violinplots should be considered to show the full distribution of data, especially when dealing with datasets where quartiles appear similar but underlying distributions are different. These tools help to reveal gaps and variations that boxplots might obscure, making for a more robust interpretation.
Another crucial aspect of statistical analysis involves addressing missing data, which is a frequent challenge in real-world datasets. The nature of missing data—whether it's completely at random (MCAR), missing at random (MAR), or missing not at random (MNAR)—significantly impacts how it should be handled. Identifying the mechanism behind missing data is critical for choosing the appropriate analytical strategy, preventing bias in the analysis. Additionally, robust regression methods are valuable as they are designed to handle outliers and anomalies that can skew results in traditional regressions. Recommended read:
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@digitaltechneha.medium.com
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www.analyticsvidhya.com
, gsapra.medium.com
Probability and statistical methods are being explored across various fields, including applications of probability distributions with examples from finance and error analysis. The focus includes an examination of counting techniques in probability and the study of joint, marginal, and conditional probabilities. This research also delves into the transformation of distributions, all of which are crucial for real-world applications.
This area of study uses mathematical and computational methods like Monte Carlo simulations to estimate probabilities. The work also explores how data analysis has evolved from traditional statistical methods to AI-driven insights, along with the fundamentals of linear regression, which serves as a key tool in data analysis. Furthermore, the work considers methods for hypothesis testing such as one-sample, two-sample, and paired t-tests using real world examples. Another area being examined is descriptive measures of association, and data management techniques such as SQL server statistics. A specific challenge was also examined, that of finding integer tetrahedrons with a given volume. Recommended read:
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