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NishMath
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Astronomers are tracking asteroid 2024 YR4, a space rock with the potential to impact Earth. Recent data shows the probability of a collision in 2032 has been increasing. Initially, the chance of impact was estimated at 1.2%, but has since risen to 3.1%. While this may sound alarming, experts say it's a normal part of refining the asteroid's trajectory.
This asteroid has the potential to wipe out a major city. Scientists use the Torino Scale to rate the potential hazards of near-Earth objects. Currently, asteroid 2024 YR4 has a rating of 3, indicating that it is worthy of attention from astronomers. This ranking reflects the probability that the asteroid is capable of localized destruction.
As scientists continue to observe the asteroid, gathering more data on its orbit, the probability of impact is expected to either increase further or drop to zero. Once a definitive miss is confirmed, the asteroid's ranking on the Torino Scale will likely be reassigned to Level 0, indicating no threat.
ImgSrc: media.astrodon.
References :
This asteroid has the potential to wipe out a major city. Scientists use the Torino Scale to rate the potential hazards of near-Earth objects. Currently, asteroid 2024 YR4 has a rating of 3, indicating that it is worthy of attention from astronomers. This ranking reflects the probability that the asteroid is capable of localized destruction.
As scientists continue to observe the asteroid, gathering more data on its orbit, the probability of impact is expected to either increase further or drop to zero. Once a definitive miss is confirmed, the asteroid's ranking on the Torino Scale will likely be reassigned to Level 0, indicating no threat.
ImgSrc: media.astrodon.
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References :
- bigthink.com: Yes, the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking us has increased: from 1.2% to 2.3% to 2.6% to 3.1%. It'll keep going up, up to around ~5%, before its odds plummet to 0. Here's why.
- bigthink.com: Why “city-killer� asteroid YR4’s impact probability keeps increasing
- StartsWithABang: Why “city-killer� asteroid YR4’s impact probability keeps increasing Yes, the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking us has increased: from 1.2% to 2.3% to 2.6% to 3.1%.
- phys.org: Article analyzing the rising impact odds of the asteroid 2024 YR4.
- www.livescience.com: News article about asteroid 2024 YR4 increasing impacting probability.
- www.statschat.org.nz: Blog post discussing the recent increase in the probability of the asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth.
- Stats Chat: As you have probably heard, a modest-sized asteroid will pass really quite close to the earth in seven years. Perhaps very close. Maybe even closer than that.
- minorplanetcenter.net: Information about potentially hazardous asteroid 2024 YR4